February 27, 2004
News Flash: Earth Not Destroyed By Meteor
Just having some fun with the fact that people tend to over estimate probabilities for rare events.
Update: I swear I had no knowledge of this news story until 1:25 PM Pacific time.
Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object, later designated 2004 AS1, had a one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours.
Of course near the bottom of the article we have this,
"I find it incredible that such action was contemplated on the basis of just four observations. That is just not enough to yield a sensible orbit."--Brian Marsden
Whoops.
And 2004 AS1? It turned out to be bigger than anyone had thought - about 500m wide. It eventually passed the Earth at a distance of about 12 million km - 32 times the Earth-Moon distance, posing no danger to us whatsoever.Posted by Steve at February 27, 2004 08:48 AM
Among my favorite risk misallocations:
--people (especially women) who drive 20% over the speed limit (while severely tailgating) to get to the airport, only to find themselves barely capable of boarding the airplane out of fear
--people who have to use a napkin on the handle of the door to exit a public bathroom so they don't touch "germs" but who will then happily go out and have unprotected sex with a stranger
Posted by: Nick on February 27, 2004 08:58 AMProbabilities for rare events?
"Keith Richards for being in living defiance of most insurance company actuary tables" from Real Men Don't Bond
30m would be bad, but wouldn't even put a dent in our population. 500m would be a bit more serious, but not at several million miles.
Posted by: Slartibartfast on February 27, 2004 01:45 PMMarsden has long been a huge credit to the astronomy community IMO - more people should listen to him.
Posted by: Robin Roberts on February 27, 2004 02:12 PMYou didn't see the story until this afternoon? Tsk, tsk.
Posted by: SPQR on February 27, 2004 02:16 PMSPQR:
I'm not sure how KGB got his 300,000 MT. I too got 10,000 MT on rough order, and you'd have to have it moving at about 100 km/s or have an unachievably high density to get energies that high. I think 10 GT translates to 40 km/s and density of granite, roughly.
Posted by: Slartibartfast on February 27, 2004 07:39 PMI got debunked once. It was an involuntary self-debunking in the middle of the night. I woke up as just as I passed the point of no return, balance-wise, and was instantly awake, terrified, and cat-twisting around to land on hands and feet. This, amazingly enough, worked. Unfortunately, my head whipped down on impact and so I smashed nose-first into my alarm clock and so the brief moment of gloating at having avoided major damage turned into instant agony. I immediately rolled onto my back and held my nose, but not in time to keep blood from rolling into my eyes.
Not a pleasant way to wake up, I can testify. The doctor said I probably dislocated whatever there is to dislocate, but it wasn't lateral so it popped right back in.
I guess being debunked can feel that way; I feel fortunate for having avoided a more lasting feeling of dislocation as a result.
Posted by: Slartibartfast on February 28, 2004 06:32 AMBeating a pun to death like that should be a criminal offense.
Posted by: Robin Roberts on February 28, 2004 02:53 PM