Deinonychus antirrhopus

The 250 MPG Hybrid

Via Outside the Beltway comes this article about hybrids getting up to 250 MPG. In carfully reading the article one will note that the the article's title is a bit misleading in that most of the cars described do not get the vaunted 250 MPG. But there are some intersting bits in there for those of us who have been watching the peak oil issue for awhile now. Namely this part,

Monrovia-based Energy CS has converted two Priuses to get up to 230 mpg by using powerful lithium ion batteries. It is forming a new company, EDrive Systems, that will convert hybrids to plug-ins for about $12,000 starting next year, company vice president Greg Hanssen said.

Yes it is expensive. If the typical hybrid costs $4,000 over the standard car and we throw in the $12,000 we are talking a pretty pricey car here. But this is only true at current gasoline prices. But if the price of gasoline keeps going up, and many seem to think it will, then it might actually make sense to switch to one of these more efficient cars. Further, lets not forget that while initially it might cost $16,000 innovattion could reduce that cost. Suppose that it in 5 years it costs $8,000 to make such a switch and the price of gasoline is $7.50/gallon? It would take not quite 7 years for the additional cost to be paid off. If gasoline costs $10/gallon and the cost of the conversion comes down to $6,000 then it would only take less 4.5 years for investment to pay for itself.

And this is one of the reasons why peak oil doesn't have to be the end of the world. The rising prices will provide increasing incentives to invest in research of this nature. How much did a computer cost 50 years ago and how big was it? Now, I bet most people have far more computing ability sitting in their home office.¹

So, is the AP story misleading? Yeah, a bit in that this kind of technology is still in its infancy. Also, there is the issue of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. After all, these efficient hybrids are swtiching one GHG emitting process (the internal combustion engine in cars) for another (electricity generating stations). But to me it indicates that there is reason to expect that the doom-n-gloom of the peak oil people is over-blown. The rising oil prices (and by implication rising gasoline prices) present increasing incentives to look at these kinds of solutions. And we also see that Paul is lacking in the reading comprehension department,

One day we'll have 250mpg cars and it will be thanks to the tireless efforts of people like Professor Davis and Ron Gremban, but as for today, it is no less mythical than the 500mpg carburetors.

No Paul, you see those 500 MPG carburetors...they never existed. The 250 MPG experimental hybrids...they do exist. They are currently expensive and the technology is in its infancy, but they do exist. Big difference.

Update: Paul is so easy to bait and pointing out his errors is like shooting fish in a barrel (i.e. fun on occasion). His defense to his errorneous claim that the 250 MPG hybrid is like the 500 MPG carburetors is that I wrote "they" when in fact there is currently only "one" that gets that sort of milage. But none-the-less in true dogged fashion, Paul is convinced that the 250 MPG hybrid is a myth. Next I'm sure Paul will be checking my post for grammar errors.
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¹According to this site a Tandy TRS-80 4K Level 1 would cost about $400 in 1978. Today that is about $1,200. Spending $1,200 on a computer today will get you a laptop with more computing power and better screen, and a host of other goodies. Basically, today's computers are cheaper due to quality improvements.