June 18, 2004
ECRI's Weekly Leading Index
Declines. The Weekly Leading Index from ECRI has declined and the growth rate is approaching zero. This indicates that there will be slowing in economic growth in the future.
Update: The Conference Board's U.S. Leading Index is up.
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in May.
Note that this does not necessarily contradict the ECRI data. The ECRI data is for June, and is weekly. In looking at the ECRI chart the growth rate in the Weekly Index was positive meanig that the index was increasing in May.
Posted by Steve at June 18, 2004 10:28 AMSteve, would you care to expound on what you think this portends for the future?
I think we'd all like to see a sustained period of growth in the economy.
The recent jobs news kind of took the shine off of recent pronouncements of coming good times.
Posted by: TangoMan on June 18, 2004 07:28 PMI think it means growth will be decent but not astounding. If the leading indices start going down over a prolonged time frame it could signal the possibility of another recession.
Posted by: Steve on June 18, 2004 10:44 PMWould that be a double-dip recession? Or are the two separated enough to make them two separate recessions?
And if recent recessions have been relatively shorter and shallower, wouldn't this suggest that recession-recoveries may also be shallower (and possibly shorter)?
Posted by: Dean on June 19, 2004 05:14 AMWell they will be seperated by about three years this September. While the leading index has moved down it does not mean a recession is imminent, just that one is more likely. Keep a close watch on it in the coming weeks.
Posted by: Steve on June 21, 2004 09:43 AM