March 24, 2004

More Problems with Clarke's Veracity

One thing that struck me was Clarke's claim to being a mind reader. Okay, Clarke didn't claim to actually be able to read minds; no Clarke simply implied quite strongly that he could tell what a person was thinking (with a fairly high degree of accuracy) by looking at ones face.

While hammering Condoleezza Rice as completely incompetent Clarke claims in his book that when he warned Rice in early 2001 about the threat from al-Qaeda she appeared to never have heard of the terrorist organization. Clarke writes, “Her facial expression gave me the impression that she had never heard the term before."--link

Well thanks to the indefatigable Henry Hanks we now know this is quite possibly another lie on Clarke's part.

On Oct. 4, 2000, Condoleezza Rice was asked by WJR radio host David Newman what a Bush administration would do about the Osama threat... Rice spoke at length about the threat, and what needed to be done to deal with it... She said that we don't want to wake up one day and find that Osama has been successful on our own territory.

Ooopsie. Of course, this is just simple Clarke bashing according some of the more dimwitted journalists. Never mind that it actually contradicts one of Clarke's claims. Nevermind that it now appears Clarke is engaging in the very same behavior that these journalists decry in others. It is okay for Clarke to make factually inaccurate claims about Condolezza Rice, but for somebody to make an accurate claim the debunks Clarke why that is simply partisan character assassination.

I can't believe these guys actually get paid to pretend to be journalists.

Update: Glenn Reynolds posts this brief from Clarke,

January 2001, the incoming Bush administration was briefed on the existing strategy. They were also briefed on these series of issues that had not been decided on in a couple of years.

And the third point is the Bush administration decided then, you know, mid-January, to do two things. One, vigorously pursue the existing policy, including all of the lethal covert action findings, which we've now made public to some extent. . . .

The second thing the administration decided to do is to initiate a process to look at those issues which had been on the table for a couple of years and get them decided.

So, point five, that process which was initiated in the first week in February, uh, decided in principle, uh in the spring to add to the existing Clinton strategy and to increase CIA resources, for example, for covert action, five-fold, to go after Al Qaeda. . .

And then changed the strategy from one of rollback with Al Qaeda over the course [of] five years, which it had been, to a new strategy that called for the rapid elimination of al Qaeda. That is in fact the timeline.

JIM ANGLE: You're saying that the Bush administration did not stop anything that the Clinton administration was doing while it was making these decisions, and by the end of the summer had increased money for covert action five-fold. Is that correct?

CLARKE: All of that's correct.--emphasis added
Source

In other words, Clarke said that not only did hte Bush Administration do what the Clinton Administration was doing it strengthened some of these policies.

See guys like Big Media Matt would call this an attempt to discredit Clarke and ingnore the charges Clarke is making. The problem is it actually looks at what Clarke said earlier to see if it fits with what he is saying now. So which is it: was Clarke lying to reporters back in 2002 or is he lying now?

Further, this goes to what Clarke is saying. What did the Bush team do? Did it do anything against terrorism and al Qa'ida specifically, did it take such threats seriously? According to Clarke's own statements it looks like the Bush team took things as seriously as the Clinton team if not more seriously. Was it enough to stop 9/11, obviously not, but it does call into question Clarke's veracity and motives. Why is Clarke now saying and writing things that appear to contradict his previous briefing to reporters?

Update II: Clay Ranck has two post on this as well, here and here. Both are worth reading.

Update III: I'm begining to wonder if Henry Hanks is even human. Yet another find by Henry. This article pretty much points out that Clarke is playing politics with his book. Even if we assume that all of his accusations are true, i.e., not enough was done to combat Al Qa'ida prior to 9/11 and then later the invasion of Iraq diverted attention and resources from hunting terrorists, this first part of the criticism can be levelled against not just Bush but Clinton, the first President Bush and perhaps even Reagan.

In research for my latest book, I found Clarke to be one of the few heroes in the Bush White House. He was a career bureaucrat who served under four presidents and one of the first officials to recognize the seriousness of the threat posed by Al Qaeda and Islamic fundamentalists. But it is disappointing to see Clarke pick on only one of the four administrations under which he served; after all, there were decades of American incompetence and inaction, and they all deserve a share of the blame.

And in my opinion so does Clarke. It was literally on his watch when the Cole and the U.S. embassies were bombed. If he felt that not enough was being done under Clinton then why not quit then and go public? Why now in an election year?

Clarke knows better than to blame any one administration. And so do most of the partisans now pointing fingers at each other.

No one party or administration is to blame for 9/11. They all are. There was a systematic failure to recognize the early threat posed by Islamic fundamentalism, and a thorough unwillingness to aggressively confront that threat once it was identified. If the 9/11 commission does its work correctly, both parties will have to hang their heads in shame before the electorate this November.

Now that I agree with. Yes, a systemic failure. Is part of Clarke's message that not enough has been done to address that systemic failure? If so he has done a dis-service to his career, his supporters, and to every American by letting that message get lost in the political angling/personal benefit that he has sought out.

Update IV: Daniel Drezner has a really good post on Richard Clarke. Here are some key parts,

Second, he was extremely skilled in the art of bureaucratic politics. One official who saw Clarke in action -- and has no love for this administration -- described him to me as "smart, conservative, dedicated, insecure, and vindictive." I've heard stories from both friends and foes of Clarke, and they have one common thread -- you did not want this man for an enemy. He knows how to retaliate. [UPDATE: check out Fred Kaplan's sidebar and main story in Slate about Clarke for examples.]

So, when the Bush team decided to jettison Clarke sometime after 9/11, they made an enemy out of Clarke. And they're paying for that now.

So, does Clarke have a personal incentive to stick it to this administration? Absolutely. Does he know what he's talking about? Absolutely.

In short, the idea that Clarke wants to burn the Bush Administration out of personal animus towards those in the Bush Administration could indeed have some truth to it...and why not make a buck or a million doing it if you can.

As for the best response to Clarke,

The best thing for this administration is to say in response to Clarke would be: "Yes, if we could turn back time, we'd have given AQ more consideration. But it probably would not have prevented 9/11. And don't claim that we could solve a problem in eight months that the last team -- in which Clarke was the lead on this policy front -- couldn't solve over eight years."

Which is close to what I have been saying. Clearly if we got a "do-over" knowing what we know now, in January 2001 Bush would start mobilizing the troops immediately for invasion of Afghanistan and would put out the word to hunt down the 9/11 19 and have them all arrested or killed on sight. But we can't do that so the only constructive thing to be gained from looking at the past is to see where the mistakes were made in the process so as to improve the results.

As for the selection of the target, the Bush Administration did select Clarke's preferred target. This criticism of his seems almost devoid of anything useful and looks the most spiteful. To say that Clarke isn't bitter is, in my opinion, to close one's eyes to a very real motivating factor here. To use this tragedy to assuage his own bruised ego, if true, portrays Clarke as a venal and despicable man.

Posted by Steve at March 24, 2004 08:55 AM
Comments

Its becoming clearer that far from having any embarrassing revelations ( which would really not be unreasonable - any administration has its embarrassing moments ), Clarke has no credibility at all and is quite dishonest.

Of course, the media is doing almost nothing to actually test his allegations.

Posted by: Robin Roberts on March 24, 2004 09:06 AM

I've been working on this one for the past day or so...Clarke's story is not internally consistent, which we know is the measure of a man's statements, at least according to Kevin Drum.

I've got posts here and here.

Posted by: Clay Ranck on March 24, 2004 09:35 AM

Are we now allowed to judge people based on the looks they have, as Clarke says? Okay, Clarke looks like a man pleased with himself and his newfound fame with dollar signs in front of his eyes.

Are we now allowed to judge credibility based on consistency, as the New Republic and Kaplan at Slate say? Okay, Clarke is very inconsistent, therefore his book should not be treated as the Bible of What Happened about Terrorism as it is being treated even at the "9/11 Commission."

Posted by: HH on March 24, 2004 10:02 AM

Limbaugh just played a part of the interview from '00......10 million people just heard Clark's credibility go straight down the toilet.

Posted by: Ricky on March 24, 2004 10:48 AM

What's Nader's take on all this, anybody know? With the lack of comment by Kerry, I think Nader can sneak in and steal the ABB vote. This is the chance that Nader has been waiting for.

Nader/Dean in '04! Put me in coach, I can make it!

Posted by: Ron on March 24, 2004 10:58 AM

Outstanding, Steve. I excerpted you mercilessly over at Obsidian Wings.

Posted by: Slartibartfast on March 24, 2004 11:13 AM

Believe me, I support Bush and his efforts and what he has done. But this thing with Rice, Clarke claimed Rice seemed not aware of what al Qaeda was. The interview with Rice,used to debunk what Clarke has said, Rice uses Bin-laden and never says "al Qaeda," once. Technical? Well,with the liberal bias, if we are to nail Clarke, we have to be exact.

Posted by: Russell C. Fette on March 24, 2004 06:16 PM

Bizarre Russell. Al Queda was Bin Laden's creation and at the time of the interview the term was less well known.

Posted by: Robin Roberts on March 24, 2004 07:37 PM

Clearly if we got a "do-over" knowing what we know now, in January 2001 Bush would start mobilizing the troops immediately for invasion of Afghanistan and would put out the word to hunt down the 9/11 19 and have them all arrested or killed on sight.

Certainly, and would have been lambasted for being a reckless cowboy by the same morons who are bitching about preemption in Iraq.

Posted by: Dave on March 24, 2004 07:42 PM

Oh and as Steve says, Henry you are a machine - wow.

Posted by: Robin Roberts on March 24, 2004 09:12 PM

What Russell said.

Personally, I think trying to divine someone's thoughts from facial expressions is akin to palm reading.

But since so many people have made such a big deal about how this WJR interview proves what a big liar Clarke is, why can't we see a quote where she actually says the words "al Qaeda"?

Does the interview prove what you claim, or not?

Posted by: QuakerinaBasement on March 24, 2004 11:28 PM

Quaker,

When you get to that level of hair splitting I think the argument is pretty much over. Rice was aware of such threats and if we are going to split such fine semantical hairs I'm sure we can sit around proclaiming just about everybody ignorant on just about anything.

Posted by: Steve on March 24, 2004 11:49 PM
But since so many people have made such a big deal about how this WJR interview proves what a big liar Clarke is, why can't we see a quote where she actually says the words "al Qaeda"?

Oh and Clarke isn't telling the big lies. No, he is telling the little ones that make the other side look foolish and himself look good. If he were telling the big lies (say for example he was all set an prepared to personally stop all 19 highjackers single handedly) we'd know him for a liar.

Posted by: Steve on March 24, 2004 11:52 PM

What hair splitting? Henry says the interview proves Clarke is a big liar because he thought Rice had never heard the term "al Qaeda." He's made a great big deal about it and you've linked to it.

But the only quote he's posted from that interview never uses the term!

I'm not saying Henry's wrong. I just want to see the goods. Does he have 'em or not?

Posted by: Quaker on March 25, 2004 12:18 AM

As long as we're doing double posts, I'll play.

It's not like I think that Clarke's claim is all that important. Personally, I had never heard the term "al Qaeda" until after 9/11. I had heard of Osama bin Laden.

But when blog posters start making inflated claims about what their cites prove, sometimes I smell the barnyard.

Clarke didn't claim she'd never heard of bin Laden. He didn't claim she didn't know where Afghanistan is. His claim was specific. Henry wants to rebut that specific claim.

Where's the evidence?

Posted by: Quaker on March 25, 2004 12:22 AM

You are still splitting hairs here.

Posted by: Steve on March 25, 2004 12:37 AM

At the risk of violating Godwin's Law, I believe that much of CHurchill's warnings during his wilderness years were aimed at Adolf Hitler. He may have mentioned the Nazi Party, but almost certainly it was rarer than his mentions of Hitler.

More to the point, Churchill, for all his intelligence, probably did not understand the precise mechanisms of control within the National Socialist Workers' Party.

Does this mean that, somehow, Churchill did not understand the threat posed by the NAZIS, b/c he only mentioned HITLER??

Get real, folks. WHY would Osama bin Laden be a threat? If it isn't, at base, tied to the organization that he heads? (Little pun, there, heh heh.) After all, one tall Arab w/ a kidney condition ain't exactly the issue---one tall Arab w/ a kidney condition who not only has beaucoup bucks but the willingness to use it (and al-Qaeda is his mechanism of disbusement) IS.

So, puh-leeze. Get real.

Steve, I'm still convinced Quaker=Brian, btw.

Posted by: Dean on March 25, 2004 06:36 AM

Hmmm...I'll check IPs but I doubt it. Quaker actually answers questions.

Posted by: Steve on March 25, 2004 08:35 AM

Granted, but both are obsessed with posting non sequiturs.

Posted by: Robin Roberts on March 25, 2004 08:59 AM

I'm pretty sure Rice thought OBL was operating totally alone, all by himself, no organization, no help, nothing but one Lone Islamist (maybe with a nifty black mask, but no Tonto). That's why he was so dangerous. How could you possibly capture or kill one man who could be anywhere, without anyone helping so no one could tell you where he was. Also, since he was only 6'6" tall and bearded, he wouldn't stand out in a crowd. (Although, much like Sherlock Holmes, he is a master of disguise, and can easily disguise himself in mere seconds as Nadia Comaniche.)

So, nope, no al qaida. Rice obviously never, never considered the Lone Islamist having sidekicks. If she had but listened to Clarke, we could have easily rounded them up. Never heard of no al qaida.

Posted by: JorgXMcKie on March 25, 2004 11:40 AM

You guys should read the Daily Howler for Thursday, 3/25 (scroll to the last item).

Posted by: Quaker on March 25, 2004 08:26 PM

Yes, a fine example of semantical hair splitting. She mentions OBL, but never Al Qa'ida, therefore she never heard of Al Qa'ida and thus Clarke is a truth teller. Right.

Posted by: Steve on March 26, 2004 08:36 AM

Steve writes:

"Yes, a fine example of semantical hair splitting. She mentions OBL, but never Al Qa'ida, therefore she never heard of Al Qa'ida and thus Clarke is a truth teller. Right."

Are dittoheads *really* this stupid, or do they just pretend to be? *Everyone* knew in October 2000 who OBL was; that Rice mentioned him a few times has no relevance to Clarke's impression that she hadn't heard of Al Qaeda. OTOH, the fact that she *never mentions Al Qaeda in the interview* adds plausibility to Clarke's impression. Clarke writes that, when Rice appeared not to have heard of Al Qaeda, he explained that they were OBL's network, but more than that. Of course he knew that she knew who *OBL* was. It's not "semantical hair splitting", it's simple logic, something apparently beyond your capabilities.

Posted by: jb on March 29, 2004 03:14 AM

JorgXMcKie writes:

"I'm pretty sure Rice thought OBL was operating totally alone, all by himself, no organization, no help, nothing but one Lone Islamist (maybe with a nifty black mask, but no Tonto)."

This is incredibly idiotic. In October 2000, everyone who pays any attention had heard of OBL and knew that he had lots of fanatical followers -- I did, didn't you? But very few people had heard of Al Qaeda -- I hadn't, had you?
Apparently neither had Sovietologist Condi Rice, since she never mentions them in her interview.

Posted by: jb on March 29, 2004 03:20 AM

steve writes:

"When you get to that level of hair splitting I think the argument is pretty much over. Rice was aware of such threats and if we are going to split such fine semantical hairs I'm sure we can sit around proclaiming just about everybody ignorant on just about anything."

The point is that she's supposed to be national security advisor; she's supposed to have a lot more knowledge than a random news junkie. She's supposed to know the name, size, and reach of OBL's organization, and that it's more than that, it's a network, which is what Clarke explained to her when she appeared never to have heard of Al Qaeda. You dittoheads have claimed
that Rice's WJR interview shows Clarke's statement to be false, but you're LYING and now you're BACKTRACKING. How typical.

Posted by: jb on March 29, 2004 03:33 AM

All those bureucratic hair splitting lawyers
certainly looked useless as Faluja revolted.
The problem obviously is systemic.
$$$ billion wasted dollars & they think they can fix it with a billion more.

The enemy walked into
the general's tent(pentagon)
Fire the lot downsize INTELL
With the rising ani americanism on the street & in the global economic arena
prior to 9/11
any awake person could tell
something was up
It happened under Bush watch .

Posted by: Markangelo on May 2, 2004 08:48 PM
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