Deinonychus antirrhopus

Isn't it possible that the economy is transforming at a much faster rate that has in the past. We're moved from an agarian to an industrial to an information and maybe now we are moving to an ideal economy. I know we outsource our coding to Asia, but all of the creativity and ideas come from here in Canada. Arguably coding may be becoming manual labour.

By hiding behind words like "net gain to society", you accurately described the process by which the rich get richer and the poor get poorer in America. Congratulations. :)

I'm open to persuasion on this issue, but I read Catherine Mann's paper and I don't find it convincing at all. She relies on BLS forecasts for her view that all will be well for American IT workers in the future -- but without a peek at the BLS's methodology, it isn't clear whether these forecasts take the outsourcing trend adequately into account, or even take it into account period.

Steve, think a moment about what you're saying.

The jobs being outsourced are NOT middle class, they're in the top two tax brackets (I know I used to be in them).

It's not the death of America if programmers have to work for less that $80,000/year. I sure did like my salary, but I made less this year than I paid in taxes the previous year.

I'm still programming, I'm just doing it for less, but still adequate, money.

Outsourcing programming jobs in NOT making the poor poorer. It's making the upper-middle class ("rich" if you're a democrat) join the rest of the population. Shop at WalMart and get over it.

sigh. There's so much horsecrap in all this that it's hard to know where to start. So I'll start by putting my boots in with just one point and then we'll see if pro-outsourcers can actually come up with a refutation. Frankly most of the arguments I've seend and read have all been either circular, where one person refers to another etc etc etc, or have include a lot of spin, hope and BS with no supporting facts.

Boots in HERE:

The fact is that the IT industry is based entirely on **experience**. NOT education. This is why 1/3 of all programmers are self-taught. 1/3 of all programmers have an English or Music degree. And 1/3 of all programmers have a CS or IT degree. Another aspect is that it takes at least 6 months to deprogram a recent college grad, removing all the idiot processes and techniques taught in school, and preparing him/her for an actual professional level task.

The biggest danger of the outsourcing crap going on now isn't that jobs are being lost for the short term. It's that they are being lost PERMANENTLY. It takes 3-4 years of constant challenges to make a veteran programmer. It takes the same amount of time, or more, to make a veteran analyst. Depending on the individual it can take as long or longer to make a good project manager. I.e. it takes years of constant work to allow novice and junior level developers to attain higher levels of skill, experience, ability and responsibility.

And a major amount of that potential experience is going offshore. And, as time passes and more projects/departments/centers are moved, this process will accelerate.

Let's consider a couple really idiotic points that other people have made.

1. This is a fad.
So what? So who cares if it is a fad? Whether it is a fad or not is immaterial if the effects of that fad are long-term. In this case if the fad lasts 5-10 years, which is not impossible, then the fad will be permanent.

In that time period established and experienced developers will have moved onto other professions. During this time their professional level skills will have degraded to a point where they would require almost a complete rebuild of their skills. Junior level developers will simply not have the ability to pick up development and, even with that, why would anyone in college want to take on CS degree programs when there's such a long period of time without available jobs?

So at the end of this "fad" we have a situation where employers are looking to move operations back to the US, why they are we're never told - perhaps it's because they want to give money away, but now they won't be able to find any significant number of professional developers with which to do so. You can't make a senior level Oracle DBA by goofing around in a garage. You need experience with large mission-critical systems with hundreds of gigabytes of data, at a minimum.

This isn't assembling crap in a factory. Nor is it restoring a classic car and then moving on to a A-certificate auto mechanic. It's extremely difficult stuff to master and you must do it every damn day in a working environment. Even then you still have to do a great deal of self-training and research to maintain your edge.

2. This is NOT a fad.
Well then here's the whole deal. The domestic software development industry then largely dies out. A descending cycle of fewer jobs available, mass migration out of the IT industry and fewer new graduates recruited in. For those companies that are looking to maintain domestic developers, they'll be able to do so but it will be from a diminishing pool of talent. Until they bite the bullet and move it offshore.

This same cycle happend to COBOL. COBOL looked like it was dying out, everyone migrated to newer technologies and then finally the only significant number of COBOL programmers that could be had, were in India.

Ok. So now the knowledge industry in America is dead. What then?

Want fries with that?

...

So here's the deal. If you want to argue with me, then refute any/all of the points made. But don't waste my time with any bulls**t. If you're going make abstract predictions with no NUMBERS then I'll just ignore you. If you refer to another author as your "proof" then I'll ignore you. You refute, you write, you provide the proof.

And btw, did you know that in December of 2003 this *recovering* economy only added 1,000 jobs? Which is magnitudes less than the acceptable variance in the data? LOL. Want to know where those jobs are being created?

I'm laughing at you guys now. And I'll be laughing at you in June. I figure, at this rate, by June this "powerful" economy will have created about 10,000 jobs. Considering the loss of 2.3 million over the last 4 years, that means we've only got 2.29 million to go. :):):)

And this is from a Conservative Republican! ROFLMAO!

ed

So I'll start by putting my boots in with just one point and then we'll see if pro-outsourcers can actually come up with a refutation.

Strawman argument. Nobody has come out in favor of outsourcing, but insteadn are questioning the doom and gloom bullshit from people like you ed.

Frankly most of the arguments I've seend and read have all been either circular, where one person refers to another etc etc etc, or have include a lot of spin, hope and BS with no supporting facts.

Yes, ed, referring to another person who does the research is called looking at what the experts are saying who have looked at the data.

The biggest danger of the outsourcing crap going on now isn't that jobs are being lost for the short term. It's that they are being lost PERMANENTLY.

Yes, I'm sure people made the same arguments about people who lost jobs in agriculture when mass produced farm equipment came about.

It takes 3-4 years of constant challenges to make a veteran programmer. It takes the same amount of time, or more, to make a veteran analyst. Depending on the individual it can take as long or longer to make a good project manager. I.e. it takes years of constant work to allow novice and junior level developers to attain higher levels of skill, experience, ability and responsibility.

So what, lots of jobs require human capital.

And a major amount of that potential experience is going offshore.

You are assuming what you are trying to show as true (begging the question), then you use it to show why it is bad (circular reasoning). Some jobs have been outsourced, the exact magnitude has yet to be determined.

1. This is a fad.

Nobody has said this is a fad (strawman argument). What they have said is that part of what is being observed might be due to trend decline, the business cycle, and the result of the tech boom and subsequent bust as well as outsourcing. So the exact magnitude of outsourcing is unclear at best.

2. This is NOT a fad. Well then here's the whole deal. The domestic software development industry then largely dies out. A descending cycle of fewer jobs available, mass migration out of the IT industry and fewer new graduates recruited in. For those companies that are looking to maintain domestic developers, they'll be able to do so but it will be from a diminishing pool of talent. Until they bite the bullet and move it offshore.

This same cycle happend to COBOL. COBOL looked like it was dying out, everyone migrated to newer technologies and then finally the only significant number of COBOL programmers that could be had, were in India.

Ok. So now the knowledge industry in America is dead. What then?

Want fries with that?

Yes, yes. Just like how millions of Americans were destitute when the economy shifted from agriculture due to technological advancement. Soon everybody will be working at McDonalds.

I know, you'll ask me what else will they do. I don't know. But just because I don't know doesn't mean they must go work at McDonalds. Do you know which stocks will rise tomorrow and which ones will decline? No, why you must be a financial idiot who can't even count change.

So here's the deal. If you want to argue with me, then refute any/all of the points made. But don't waste my time with any bulls**t. If you're going make abstract predictions with no NUMBERS then I'll just ignore you. If you refer to another author as your "proof" then I'll ignore you. You refute, you write, you provide the proof.

Good bye ed. Since you don't want to ground your arguments in theory, look at those actually doing research on this, and look at their analysis of the data you are somebody who has made up their mind and decided that no amount of emprical evidence will move you. That is of course, your preogrative.

Oh...and better check your employment numbers again. Yes, there were only 1,000 new payroll jobs added in December, but the establishment survey is a low ball estimate. Further, there have been other months in which jobs have been added. I mean if your going to look at the data, try to look at all of it, not just that which supports your preconcieved ideas.

I'm not a programmer, so I'm not even going to try and dispute what ed has written above.

But I will note that Ed, in his "argument," lays out two sets of numbers, w/ nary a reference in sight.

Where did he conclude that

This is why 1/3 of all programmers are self-taught. 1/3 of all programmers have an English or Music degree. And 1/3 of all programmers have a CS or IT degree

And as for whether this is a fad or not: Any fad that lasted 5-10 years wouldn't be a fad. Pet rocks---that was a fad (lasted about a year). Wide ties---that was a fad (last a couple of years).

Couple that w/ what he will ignore (no numbers---which he himself doesn't provide, either, or citing other authors), and I'm left wondering why anyone should pay any attention to HIM?

You know it's easy to be sanguine about all of this when your job isn't being outsourced.
Plus I've never read a discusion from the "outsourcing ain't all that" crowd about where these replacement jobs will come from.
Not all of us can go off and get a Ph.D. in cell biology.

ed,

I've got some skin in this game too as I'm trying to get back into software development after being out of it for 20 years (all the hardware I used to work on is now exhibits in the Computer Museum). Obviously, my timing could be better, but I don't think its hopeless. Here's a rundown of some of my reasoning on this matter:

Factors tending to reduce demand for/pay for U.S.-based programmers/software developers/IT Pros:

1. Availability of significant numbers of well-trained Indians who make 1/4 - 1/6 of their U.S. counterparts.

2. The near future availability of more of the same from China, The Phillipines and other places.

Factors tending to limit the "damage" to U.S.-based IT:

1. There is a significant "minimum buy-in" before outsourcing makes sense. A business with 600 IT staff will probably find current outsourcing economics compelling, but not a firm with 6 IT staff and probably not even a firm with 60. If you work for a small or medium-sized outfit, you're probably safe.

2. India has a large population and a large educated population, but the latter is not sufficient, in absolute numbers, to soak up every American IT job, let alone every American white collar job. Also, the Indian educational infrastructure is not able to turn out new legions of IT-capable graduates instantly even if suitable student bodies are available. Hell, they can't do it even by shipping them HERE for the education. This will also apply to any future low-wage would-be competitor of India for outsourcing jobs/dollars.

3. IT isn't the only outsourcable white-collar activity. Educated Indians have other alternatives to IT employment. The number of new Indian "heads" coming on-line each quarter will have more options as more types of white collar work are outsourced. This will raise Indian white collar wages at several times the rate of U.S. wage growth and act - over time - to make outsourcing relatively less attractive. Because of the supply-side constraints I just mentioned, the total fraction of U.S.-based white collar work OF ANY SPECIFIC TYPE that is realistically outsourcable will fall into an equilibrium with supply. The more different types of work outsourced, the less will be the Stateside "bite" out of any particular one.

4.Other bidders for outsourcing resources will appear. It took the Japanese a long time to start building overseas manufacturing facilities, but they got into it in a big way once that ball got rolling. Because of the already overstaffed nature of Japanese white collar employment, Japanese white collar outsourcing will start slow and build as their aging population retires. Same thing applies to European countries who are also reproducing at way below the replacement rate.

5. Indigenous growth in size and sophistication of the economies of today's and tomorrow's outsourcing countries will require that more and more of their white collar assets be deployed domestically, taking them out of outsourcing contention. The Chinese and Indian economies are growing at twice the rate of the U.S. and seem likely to continue doing so for some time.

The Japanese factory workers who made 1/6 the pay of their American counterparts in 1965, were making more than Americans by 1980. I think the overall effect on American IT wages of current and near-future outsourcing is likely to be similar to that on American blue collar pay in the 70's and 80's - stasis or decline for a few years followed by a resumption of solid gains, but with much more training and expertise required per job and with the jobs becoming correspondingly more specialized.

As the two biggest national populations on earth are now or are about to be the main sources of "cheap coolie IT labor," I don't see the domestic U.S. IT situation being in the doldrums for more than a few years at most. Once the Indian and Chinese economies start needing those outsource "heads" themselves, there simply won't be any remaining large, untapped pool of potential outsource labor to worry about.

The trick for U.S. IT pros, as I see it, is to get through the next few years.

You know it's easy to be sanguine about all of this when your job isn't being outsourced. Plus I've never read a discusion from the "outsourcing ain't all that" crowd about where these replacement jobs will come from. Not all of us can go off and get a Ph.D. in cell biology.

So if you can't imagine it, it wont happen? Sharon this kind of argument is completely specious. It is specious because you are asking me to predict the future with perfect accuracy and infinite detail. Then you conclude that my failure to do so means my arguments are hogwash.