January 28, 2004
Looks Like Kerry Is On A Roll
With his win in New Hampshire, Kerry is now the man to beat. It will be interesting to see what happens on Feb. 3rd. Edwards has the best shot in South Carolina, but as for the places like Arizona, New Mexico and Delaware I don't know. If Kerry comes through with similar support on Feb. 3 I bet at least Clark, Dean and Edwards will stick it out since they'll be looking to see what kind of deal they can swing at the convention. It looks like its going to be a long campaign for the Democrats.
Dean is not out of the race yet as he currently has the most delegates (113 to Kerry's 94). Along with his organization and his money he is still a formidable candidate right now. But unless he can start picking up more support soon he is going to be in trouble.
The other big question is Gephardt going to endorse anybody going into MO? There are 74 delegates available there and along with a Gephardt endorsement there is another 7 (these are the delegates Gephardt won in Iowa). Such an endorsement could bring an easy 40 or so delegates.
Posted by Steve at January 28, 2004 10:02 AMThose delegate counts are misleading, since they include superdelegates who have expressed a preference. As the wheels continue to come off of the Dean Campaign, they can and will move around (likely toward Kerry). The hard count of committed delegates is Kerry 33, Edwards 18, Dean 16.
Posted by: apostropher on January 29, 2004 06:09 AMOh, and Gephardt didn't win any in Iowa because he didn't break the 15% bar - those seven are superdelegates who had previously committed to him. Only the three I mentioned above won delegates in Iowa, only Kerry and Dean won them in NH.
Posted by: apostropher on January 29, 2004 07:04 AMKerry picked up endorsements from former senators Thomas Eagleton and Jeanne Carnahan.
I doubt that will be of much influence though. Eagleton has been out of office for a long time, and Carnahan was worthless.
Posted by: Dave on January 29, 2004 07:14 AMYeah and it looks like Dean is in money trouble too. His staff will now be "volunteering" two weeks of work (i.e., no pay). Dean says it'll make a "leaner meaner" organization...more like just leaner.
Throw in the firing of Trippi and I've changed my mind. Dean is Done. My guess is it'll probably be Kerry with a slight outside chance by Edwards.
Posted by: Steve on January 29, 2004 09:04 AM