January 26, 2004
Hey!
The Joint Economic Committee has an article on their website about the declining number of jobless claims. Complete with a nifty graph. That looks surprisingly like these posts of mine (link, link, link).
I consider this good news. Further, I wouldn't be surprised that if there is a revision to the sample of firms in the establishment survey that unemployment figures are revised downwards.
Update: In comments Arnold Kling reminds me that the unemployment rate is calculated using the household survey--i.e., no revision is possible due to a change in the establishment survey. D'oh.
Still, it is the establishment survey that everybody looks at to see how the economy is doing on job creation. So that is where the correction would be. In other words, several months from now (or whenever the revision is made) the story would be that jobs actually increased by X amount more than previously indicated based on revisions to the establishment survey.
This is one of the things I've pointed out in the past. The establishment survey gives a low number, and the household survey a higher number. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. The JEC has a graph that shows the disparity between the two surveys.
Posted by Steve at January 26, 2004 01:16 PM"I wouldn't be surprised that if there is a revision to the sample of firms in the establishment survey that unemployment figures are revised downwards."
Well, since the unemployment figures come from the household survey, it would be quite a trick to have them change due to a revision in the establishment survey.
The fact is that the establishment survey and the household survey are telling us different things, and nobody for sure knows why.
D'oh...sheeesh I knew that, but forgot all about it. Sheesh. Thanks Arnold.
Posted by: Steve on January 26, 2004 01:39 PM