November 25, 2003
Daily Kos: Still Bearish
Daily Kos' poster Meteor Blades is hoping the economy goes south. After noting my post on the revised GDP numbers, the increase in corporate profits, and the increase in consumer confidence, Daily Kos' conclusion,
But, as I’ve noted previously, GDP is only one measure of economic well-being, one quarter is just one quarter, and my neighbor's unemployment benefits expired four-and-one-third quarters ago.
Quite right, but lets look again at the number of things I looked at in my post:
- GDP
- Corporate Profits
- Consumer Confidence
Let me see...1, 2,...yes 3 things. I do believe that I have mastered the art of higher mathematics (counting to 3) while Meteor Blades is still mired in the basics like learning that 1 and 3 are not the same.
Further, these are not the only indicators that are looking better. Unemployment is looking better. So is the index for leading economic indicators compiled by the Conference Board.
Do these guys know what google.com is? Can't they find these sites and look at the data too? Sure the recovery isn't going great guns, but I'd like to remind people like Meteor Blade that the last recovery/expansion that went 10 years was a slow starter as well. It started in March of 1991 and really didn't get going until 1993. If this recovery/expansion last as long it'll be a long time till the Democrats see whe inside of the White House (barring some catastrophe such as complete failure in Iraq).
I love this bit,
In other words, consumer spending can’t outpace consumer income forever. Without a far greater increase in employment, consumer demand will fall because it must.
Of course, nobody is saying the economy is going to keep growing at a rate of 8.2%. That kind of growth is completely unsustainable, but if we see growth at half that level by the time the election rolls around unemployment will be down quite a bit.
Quite a pathetic showing from a poster at the Daily Kos.
Posted by Steve at November 25, 2003 10:37 PMI'd like to predict here and now that when the next GDP growth numbers come out, and it's less than 8.3%, they'll be crowing "See!?!? The 3rd quarter was just an anomoly! The economy sucks!" yada yada yada.
Posted by: DaveL on November 27, 2003 08:01 AMUndoubtedly, but the that will just give guys like me a chance to point out what lying, snivelling twits they are when they would crow about Clinton's 4.x% growth rates.
Don't get me wrong a 4.x% growth rate these days is good, and Clinton's economic record is good. But to turn around and claim 4.x% is bad will show what partisan pinheads these people are. And I'll be quite happy to point it out over and over again.
Posted by: Steve on November 27, 2003 10:34 PMMore of the failure to understand that the last recession was rooted not in consumer but business-to-business spending.
Posted by: Robin Roberts on November 28, 2003 11:19 AMI am not an economist, but I have been paying attention to the economy while living in it for the past few decades. If consumer spending goes up, then economic activity goes up. Seasonal retail employment is hopping in at least some markets right now, and those wages will be going into the economy. I see no reason why this thing can't be self sustaining, albeit at a lower rate.
